Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 was driven largely by gold exports, leaving the economy vulnerable to changes in international commodity prices, the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned. ISSER director Professor Robert Darko Osei said Ghana’s improved economic performance could only be sustained by increasing domestic production, expanding manufacturing and adding greater value to raw materials. Speaking at the launch of the 2025 State of the Ghanaian Economy Report (SGER), he said the country was relying on a sector over which it had limited control. “The position that we have found ourselves in is being driven by a sector that we do not have significant control over,” he said. Prof Osei urged the government to use the current period of stability to develop productive industries and build stronger external reserves, warning that favourable gold prices could not be guaranteed indefinitely. Gold accounted for most of the 2025 trade surplus, while the recovery in cocoa exports contributed relatively little. Manufactured products made up less than six per cent of total exports during the year, down from 2024. ISSER said Ghana needed policies to increase the volume and competitiveness of manufactured exports, while processing more of its natural resources domestically would help broaden the economy. Although inflation dropped from more than 23 per cent in 2024 to 5.4 per cent in 2025, and the cedi appreciated significantly, the cost of borrowing remained a barrier to private-sector investment. Average bank lending rates fell from more than 30 per cent in 2024 to about 20 per cent in 2025, but Prof Osei said they were still too high for businesses to compete and expand. “If credit is a binding constraint for private businesses in Ghana, clearly we cannot be competitive,” he said. He called for monetary stability to be converted into affordable finance for productive investment. Non-performing loans, he added, continued to restrict further reductions in lending rates because banks had to price in possible losses. Using a 20 per cent non-performing loan rate as an example, Prof Osei said a bank lending GH¢100 could potentially fail to recover about GH¢20. He also called for action to address the structural causes of loan defaults and improve banks’ ability to finance the economy. The government, he said, should strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation, preserve fiscal discipline and protect public investment, while institutionalising measures that had restored fiscal stability. ISSER’s Head of Economics, Prof Fred Dzanku, said higher mining revenues had not consistently produced increased public investment or better social services. He urged improvements in mineral valuation, production monitoring, tax compliance and revenue administration, alongside greater transparency in managing mineral income. Ghana’s recovery continued into 2026, he said, with first-half growth reported at about 6.1 per cent, although expansion was concentrated in fewer sectors than in the previous year. Gold still dominated the trade surplus, while some other exports were deteriorating. National Investment Bank (NIB) Deputy Managing Director Belinda Boamah called for the gains to be turned into investment, competitive businesses and decent jobs, especially for young people. She also backed transparent mineral-revenue management, timely payments to mining communities, saving during periods of strong commodity prices, tougher action against illegal mining and affordable long-term finance for agriculture, manufacturing and value addition. Ms Boamah said policymakers, development partners, businesses, academia, civil society and the media should use the SGER to support evidence-based decisions and accountability. NIB, she added, would continue using such research to guide its lending.