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EconomyOct 23, 2026

Ghana’s 2026 reserve target under pressure as BoG gap widens

Ghana GuardianSource

Ghana’s plan to raise its international reserves to 8.6 months of import cover by December 2026 is coming under increasing pressure, with the latest figures showing the country remains well below the required level. The Bank of Ghana’s September economic and financial data put gross international reserves at US12.05billiononSeptember22,equivalentto4.5monthsofimportcover.Thatcompareswiththegovernment’swiderobjectiveofbuildinga15−monthimportbufferbytheendof2028undertheGhanaAcceleratedNationalReserveAccumulationProgramme(GANRAP).Theprogrammeaimstoliftreservesfrom5.7monthsofimportcoverattheendof2025to8.6monthsbyDecember2026.Thetargetthenrisestomorethan11.8monthsin2027beforereaching15monthsin2028.Reachingthe2026milestonewouldrequireasharpincreaseinthepaceofreserveaccumulation.Theoutlookisbeingcomplicatedbyweakerinternationalgoldprices,increaseddomesticdemandforforeignexchangeandsignificantexternaldebtobligations.GANRAPestimatesthatGhananeedstogenerateanaveragenetadditionofUS12.05 billion on September 22, equivalent to 4.5 months of import cover. That compares with the government’s wider objective of building a 15-month import buffer by the end of 2028 under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP). The programme aims to lift reserves from 5.7 months of import cover at the end of 2025 to 8.6 months by December 2026. The target then rises to more than 11.8 months in 2027 before reaching 15 months in 2028. Reaching the 2026 milestone would require a sharp increase in the pace of reserve accumulation. The outlook is being complicated by weaker international gold prices, increased domestic demand for foreign exchange and significant external debt obligations. GANRAP estimates that Ghana needs to generate an average net addition of US9.5 billion each year over the three-year period. That calculation takes account of debt servicing, payments to the energy sector, foreign-exchange operations and other outflows. GoldBod has shown it can provide substantial foreign-exchange support. In September, the Ghana Gold Board recorded US1.871billioninforeign−exchangeproceedsfromtradinggoldproducedbyartisanalandsmall−scaleminers.ThefigureexceededGoldBod’sUS1.871 billion in foreign-exchange proceeds from trading gold produced by artisanal and small-scale miners. The figure exceeded GoldBod’s US1.4 billion target by US471million.Ofthetotal,US471 million. Of the total, US1.170 billion was transferred to the Bank of Ghana for reserve accumulation, while US701.3millionwassoldtoauthorisedcommercialbanks.TheamountsenttothecentralbankwashigherthantheUS701.3 million was sold to authorised commercial banks. The amount sent to the central bank was higher than the US646.59 million provided by GoldBod in August. Total foreign-exchange generation that month was US1.315billion.However,theprogramme’sOctoberprojectionspointtoadifferentbalanceinhowforeignexchangewillbedistributed.ReceiptsareexpectedtoreachUS1.315 billion. However, the programme’s October projections point to a different balance in how foreign exchange will be distributed. Receipts are expected to reach US1.5 billion, with US1billionallocatedtocommercialbanksandUS1 billion allocated to commercial banks and US500 million transferred to the central bank. That split underlines the difficulty of increasing reserves while also supplying dollars to the domestic economy. Foreign exchange sold to commercial banks supports importers and businesses meeting their obligations, whereas funds retained by the central bank add to its reserve holdings. The authorities therefore face the task of coordinating GoldBod’s operations with Bank of Ghana interventions and government debt management at a time when gold prices are falling and external payments remain high. Ghana’s 2026 reserve objective is consequently becoming more difficult to achieve. Stronger non-gold foreign-exchange inflows, more effective implementation of GANRAP and tighter control of outflows will be central to the country’s longer-term reserve plans.

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Ghana’s 2026 reserve target under pressure as BoG gap widens | Economy News